In this issue:

1.         Toby on the Move

2.         Top 10 Again

3.         The Mets are #1

4.         Writing a Media Guide

1.         Toby on the Move

            I haven’t done much writing here at Mets Minors here in 2007, but that has something to do with my big news.  In late January, I left my job as the Radio broadcaster with the Single A Visalia Oaks for the AAA Iowa Cubs in Des Moines Iowa.  In Iowa, in addition to the radio broadcasts, I’m also doing some sales and media relations work.  It’s a big career move for me, and after a not quite two weeks in the frigid Midwest, I’m thrilled with my new organization.  Also, as a wonderful side benefit, I’ll get to see the Mets new New Orleans affiliate live and in person this year.  It’ll be the first time I’ve ever seen a Mets Minor League Affiliate live. 

            This marks the fourth winter in a row in which I packed up my car with nearly all of my belongings and headed off to work for a baseball team.  The ICubs are the most stable franchise I’ve been around, so maybe, just maybe I won’t be so nomadic in the near future.  With the addition of the Cubs, I’ve now worked for clubs affiliated with five different MLB organizations: Rangers, A’s, Devil Rays, Diamondbacks and Cubs.

2.         Top 10 Again

            Thankfully, the season for baseball rankings is ending, to be replaced by actual games and actual news when pitchers and catchers report in the next few weeks.  Looking back over the rankings prepared by the three national publications with the most prospect-y credibility (Baseball Prospectus, Minor League Ball and Baseball America) I noticed something amazing: they have exactly the same list of Top Ten Mets Prospects!!  They differ only in where they rank players within the top 10, and even at that, there’s a remarkable degree of similarity. 

            In the table below, I have the prospects arranged by their average rank among the prospect experts.

            The thing that jumps out at me again is just how much conformity there is among the three rankings.  There is complete agreement about who the Mets top four prospects are: Martinez, Pelfrey, Humber and Gomez.  No one believes that Humber or Gomez is the top prospect in the system right now, but neither is worse than fourth.  All three believe Mulvey and Niese are between 5-7 and Mike Carp and Joe Smith are between 8-10.  There’s really only a very modest disagreement about two players: Deolis Guerra and Alay Soler, who are the only players with standard deviations above 1.  As far as Guerra goes, for a pitcher so young with so much projection involved, that’s still a rather high level of consistency of opinion. Goldstein rewards Soler for being close to MLB ready, while the other two punish him slightly for his relatively low ceiling.   

            I didn’t write about Baseball America’s 2007 rankings on the day they were released on the BA website.  My bad.  I think looking back, that they came out the afternoon I first talked to Iowa, and I was so excited about that conversation, that I couldn’t find it in myself to focus on something else. 

            If anyone else has a favorite credible writer who did a top 10 for Mets Prospects that I missed who deserves to be included, drop me an email. 

            I mean no disrespect to the rankings put out by InsidePitchMagazine.com (mets.scout.com), which did a Top 50 list in the fall.  However, I excluded it from consideration because it had different eligibility rankings than the others, and was prepared so much earlier,  thus including minor leaguers who were involved in trades and are no longer with the organization.  I do recommend checking out their current scouting report series on Mets farmhands. 

3.         The Mets are #1

            The Mets are #1 in Nate Silver’s new ranking of the most talented outfields in baseball over the next 5 to 7 years  He’s using his brand new metric,  Upside  which only rewards players who are better than league average at a given position – impact players.    

1. Mets: Carlos Beltran (235.3), Lastings Milledge (140.9) and Fernando Martinez (130.0).
Geometric Mean: 162.76

On a talent basis, the Mets are runaway winners. Yes, Beltran might be 32 or 33 by the time that Martinez is ready to play in the big leagues, but all indications are that he should have a skill set that will age relatively well. And considering that the Mets’ two biggest assets are not in the outfield, they perhaps have as good a chance as anyone in baseball of building a mini-dynasty.

            Doesn’t that make you feel all warm and fuzzy inside about the Mets future?

4.         Writing a Media Guide

            One of my first tasks with the ICubs was to add recently acquired players to the team media guide.  Most were guys the big Cubs had signed to fill out their AAA roster and provide potential MLB depth.  Many of these players were top prospects at some point, but hadn’t ever established themselves as big leaguers. 

            I think this type of research project is really fun. Again, it’s a really important reminder of just how hard it is for young ballplayers gain and hold big league jobs. 

            How many Mets fans remember the name Mike Kinkade?  He played a grand total of 40 games with the big Mets who picked him up for the Brewers in 1998 in exchange for Bill Pulsipher.  Then in 2000, he was part of the package, alongside Melvin Mora and friends, sent to the Orioles in a deadline deal for Mike Bordick who hit .260/.321/.363 in 56 games for the Mets in their World Series year before heading back to Baltimore for 2001.  He might be a big part of the 2007 ICubs lineup. 

Mike Kinkade – Thirdbase/Outfield

Ht:  6-1                     Wt:  210                    Bats:  Right              Throws:  Right

Born:  5/06/73           Opening Day Age: 33                                 Resides: Pullman, WA              

2007- Signed Minor League Contract with Cubs January 9

2006- 3^rd in PCL in AVG (.328)

2005- 5^th in Runs (84) 4^th in Doubles (35); Signed Minor League Contract with Marlins December 15

2004- Signed with Hanshin Tigers for $800,000; Signed Minor League contract with Indians December 17

2003- 5^th in NL in HBP (16)

2002- Signed by the Dodgers, January 28, 2002

2001- First full MLB Season, hit .275/.345/.381

2000- Eastern League All-Star at C; BA Eastern League All-Star; 1^st in EL in SLG (.561), 1^st AVG (.358), 1^st OBP (.434); ;Traded by the Mets with SS Melvin Mora, RHP Pat Gorman and RHP Lesli Brea to the Dodgers for SS Mike Bordick, July 28; Helped US team win Olympic Gold Medal in Sydney

1999- Began the year in NY, but was sent down to the minors in May

1998- Traded by the Brewers to the Mets for LHP Bill Pulsipher, July 31; made MLB debut September 8

1997- Texas League MVP; All-Star at 3B; Baseball America AA All-Star;

1996- Midwest League All-Star at 3B; 1^st in the MWL in G (135), R (104), 2^nd RBI (100), 3^rd TB (237), 4^th XBH (52), 9^th AVG (.385),

1995- Signed June 4; Pioneer League All-Star, at 3B;  6^th in the PL in AVG (.353), 4^th OBP (.453), 1^st R (76), 5^th SB (26)

Background- Drafted by the Brewers in the 9^th round of the 1995 out of Washington State University. 

Year-Team                 Avg           G              AB            R              H              2B            3B            HR           RBI          SB            OBP         SLG

1995- Helena             .353          69             266           76             94             19             1              4              39             26             .452          .477

1996- Beloit              .304          135           496           104           151           33             4              15             100           23             .395          .478

1997- El Paso            .385          125           468           112           180           35             12             12             109           17             .455          .588

1998- Louisville        .309          80             291           57             90             24             6              7              46             10             .394          .505

         Norfolk            .280          30             125           12             35             5              0              1              18             6              .319          .344

         NEW YORK      .000                          3              2              2              0              0              0              0              0              0              .000        .000

1999- NEW YORK      .196          28             46             3              9              2              1              2              6              1              .275          .413

         Norfolk                    .308                                 84             312           53             96             20             2              7              49             7        .359      .452

2000- Binghamton     .366          90             317           66             116           24             3              10             67             18             .440          .555

         NEW YORK      .000                          2              2              0              0              0              0              0              0              0              .000        .000

         Bowie              .259                          8              27             4              7              1              0              3              5              0              .375        .630                  

         Rochester        .364          15             55             10             20             5              0              1              10             0              .471          .509

         Baltimore        .429                          3              7              0              3              1              0              0              1              1              .500        .571

2001- BALTIMORE      .275          61             160           19             44             5              0              4              16             2              .345          .381

2002- Las Vegas        .341          74             287           63             98             22             6              11             50             6              .433          .575

         LOS ANGELES .380          37             50             7              19             5              0              2              11             1              .483          .600

2003- LOS ANGELES  .216          88             162           25             35             7              0              5              14             1              .335          .352

2004- Hanshin Tigers (Japanese)

2005- Buffalo            .283          128           473           84             134           35             3              16             74             8              .369          .471

2006- Albuquerque    .328          106           381           59             125           26             3              4              50            6              .405          .444

Minor League Totals .328          944           3498         700           1146         249           40             91             617           127           .408          .500

Major League Totals  .256          222           429           56             110           20             1              13             48             5              .350          .399