Rule 5 Draft

            Thursday showed once again why you should never take anything that passes for sports-writers’ common wisdom too seriously.  I was in Orlando this week at the Winter Meetings, and the buzz in the hotel, which was turned into written word across the country’s newspapers and websites and spoken words on TV and radio, was that this year’s Rule 5 Draft would be one of the quietest ever because of the new CBA.  This year, the new CBA made players eligible for the draft one year later than the previous one, so almost all of the guys who would have been eligible for the first time aren’t in a one-year lag.  And since there was no new crop of Rule 5 eligible players, teams could in theory shield more marginal guys who were Rule 5 eligible on their 40 man roster but who they wouldn’t have protected in the past, further reducing the available talent.  It made sense.  However, it didn’t take into account just how valuable young players making the MLB minimum have become in this era of salary inflation.  Teams made 19 selections in the Major League phase, which put it in line with other drafts.  In 2003 teams made 20 selections MLB phase selections.  Josh Hamilton, who the Cubs picked from the D-Rays and then shipped to the Reds is one of the highest profile players ever to be Rule Fived for example.

            With the sixth pick, Washington grabbed Mets catcher Jesus Flores.  Flores had a big bounce-back year at St. Lucie where he hit .266/.335/.487 with 21 HR as a 21 year old after an injury plagued 2005.  That power was truly exciting, but his plate discipline 28 BB vs. 127 K still needed work.  Reports on Flores’ defense range place him in the category of needing some work, but potentially near or a little above MLB average.    There’s simply no question that he was the top catching prospect in the Mets system and one of the better ones in all of the game, although he wasn’t a can’t miss guy.  I had him in my Mets top 10. 

            The Mets had protected Flores by placing him on the AAA roster, but Washington picked him anyway.  Now Washington owes the Mets $50,000.  If Washington can’t keep Flores on its roster for the duration of the 2007 season, it must offer him back to the Mets for the discounted rate of $25,000.  To be fair to the Mets, it’s hard to look at Flores’s batting line and see an MLB ready player.  Even the scouts who liked his game, thought he needed quite a bit more seasoning both in the field and at the plate.  I guess now I’m rooting for him to fail and be sent back to the Mets sometime in 2007, but Washington is so bad, they might be able to keep him around all year.  I hate rooting against players not named Roger Clemens.  Steve Goldman at BP has a historical comp: Pig House.  

            In the AAA phase, the Mets gained and lost a player.  Two things to keep in mind here: there are no roster restrictions, and the fee for grabbing a player is much, much lower.  Pittsburgh picked 22 year old Moises Robles from the Mets.  I know absolutely nothing about Robles other than that he was lights out in the Dominican Summer League this summer 1-2, 0.60 ERA in 30 innings this summer pitching against younger competition.  He struck out 28 and walked six. 

            Later in the AAA round, the Mets drafted Ricardo Morales from Washington.  Morales, who turns 23 this Saturday was 6-10 with a 4.70 ERA for Potomac in the Carolina League.  In 132 IP, he struck out 69 and walked 42.  For $4,000 this seems like a tiny risk, tiny reward type of play.  Morales should add depth at Binghamton this summer.

            By the way, the rule used to be that a player signed at 19 or older had three years before he was Rule-5 eligible, while kids who signed at 18 or younger had four years.  Under the new CBA, it’s four and five years respectively.

Winter Meetings

            This year for the first time, I went down the Winter Meetings with a job, rather than on the prowl for a new one.  So I was the one doing the interviewing, merchandise buying, and attending league meetings this time around.  It was a very busy fun few days at the Swan and Dolphin in Disney World.  Almost everyone is there to schmooze for their current job AND their next one. 

            I’m still not over walking through the lobby and seeing groups of agents, executives and media who I’ve looked up to for years just hanging out.  It was reassuring to see Scott Boras and his omnipresent henchmen waiting to pick up their bags from the carousel just like all the other schlubs.  Omar made a brief late night appearance, just as he did last year to glide through the crowd stopping for brief chats on the floor.  Steve Philips was up late, alongside hundreds of others.  One of my favorite moments was watching Lou Pinella and Joe Madden share a few laughs.  Late nights, plus early mornings, plus a travel nightmare now means I’m losing ground to a cold.  I’ll be sick tomorrow I bet.    

Off Season As a Whole

            Thursday was the first day where things didn’t go the Mets way since the season ended.  Last week, a buddy of mine who works in an AL front office dropped me an IM, and our conversation went something like this:

Him: Yo, you want Omar’s email address? 

Me: No, why would I want it?

Him: You know, to complain.

Me: Complain?  He’s had a great offseason.

Him: Yeah, he has. 

            I like the Alou signing.  And the Vargas/Bostick for Owens/Lindstrom trade.  And the Ben Johnson/Jon Adkins for Heath Bell and Royce Ring deal.  And the Ambiorix Burgos/Brian Bannister trade.  I love the Mota contract.  Basically, in each trade, the Mets picked up the guy(s) with higher ceilings for bullpen arms.  Alternatively, in Bannister’s case they traded for an electric arm, a closer or elite setup type arm, for a back of the rotation type in Bannister.

            By the way, my excuse for taking the last month off from writing is that I moved apartments in Visalia.  My last place had wireless, my current doesn’t yet.  I don’t like staying late at the office in our windowless trailer under the hum of fluorescents to write Mets stuff.  I’ll try to figure out a solution.