Friday, December 15, good friend Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus answered my questions about his Mets top 10 via instant message. Below is a barely cleaned up version of a conversation that stretched around messy work intrusions like phone calls, meetings and sales proposals. This conversation will be more interesting if you’ve read Kevin’s Top 10 Mets Prospects at BP.
Please email me follow up questions you’d like to see answered. I realized just as I was posting this, that one question I forgot to ask was: Where would Jesus Flores have ranked if he were still a Met farmhand? I’d bet the answer was 5 or 6.
TH: First, thanks for agreeing to answer some questions. Can you describe how you put together a prospect list and the steps you take to get there?
KG: It's a combination of many things really. I keep incredibly organized notes during the season (about the only organized thing I do) that I reference for making an initial list of candidates -- usually 15-20 guys, but for the Mets it was actually hard to find 10. These notes are filled with news, stats notes and stuff from my conversations throughout the year w/ scouts then I make a preliminary list and talk to more people, scouts, baseball people, and some folks with the Mets. From all that I lock down the rankings and write.
TH: I've read or heard that when Baseball America (your former employer) publishes their top 10 or top 30, they think that it reflects an organization's own rankings pretty closely. Would you say you still hew to that philosophy?
KG: Actually no.
TH: Did you ever?
KG: When I was with BA, I did three teams for the handbook -- some teams are more helpful than others when it came to sharing information. There was one team in particular that I had real trouble getting good info from, and for their list I found that I really had to depend on people from OUTSIDE the organization for opinions and info. I thought that list turned out better. So I really do care about how an organization feels about a guy, but at the same time I like the outside opinion which is free of biases.
TH: That's interesting, and not surprising that some teams share more than others. I'd like to return to your comment that it was tough to find the 10 top Mets Prospects, and the notion of a "top heavy" system. Does that make it easier to focus on the best? And are the Mets the most top-heavy of the organizations you've finished?
KG: Well, it makes it easier to pick the top few guys (4 in the Mets case). I think most teams are top heavy in one way or another, but the Mets have this huge cliff of a drop for me after the big four. Those top four would be at or near the top 4 in most other orgs, while those at the bottom wouldn't make most top 10s, it's really quite a gap
KG: Going back thru what I've already done, Reds and D-backs also pretty top heavy.
TH: As far as I'm concerned "top heavy" is a good thing because it means that there are impact guys at the top.
KG: You're absolutely right. Drafting and player development is not about providing fillers or average starters, it's about providing cheap impact talent
TH: Ok, lets
focus in on that top four, in order,
KG: It was very, very close. I think one could flip those top three in any order really, and make a perfectly logical argument for it
TH: I agree.
KG: In the end, I
just found
TH: How much of
that "special" feeling you got re:
KG: Yeah, it's
hard not to weight the most recent stuff more.
I talked to a handful of people who saw him down there and they were
pretty universal in their praise, but the thing is, I got the same glowing
reviews from those who saw him in
TH: I can deal
with that. Lets move to the realm of
wild conjecture for a second. If he
starts 2007 in St. Lucie, and 2008 in
KG: That's certainly possible. I think '09 is more realistic, but your scenario isn't a ridiculous one.
TH: You wrote that you're not sure what kind of hitter he'll be when he hits the big leagues, but if you had to make a best guess, between him developing the power to be a 3-4-5 or a more OBP oriented approach to hit in the #2 spot in the batter order, which would it be?
KG: I think he'll end up as a 2 or 3 hitter -- Not a classic 30+ homer guy, but enough power to be dangerous and a great batting average/obp
TH: Very nice. Lets move to the college RHP. You ranked Humber higher than Pelfrey because you believe that it's more likely he maxes out his potential to be a top tier #2, whereas the uncertainly around Pelfrey is still very significant. True?
KG: That's mostly
fair. It's a weird balance between what
they are and what they can be -- if you asked me which one is more likely to
win 100 games, I'd easily take
TH: Absolutely. It's all about the probability ranges of the two guys reaching their max potential or something less.
KG: Yeah -- Pelfrey's breaking ball really bothered me.
TH: How far away is it?
KG: It's hard to say -- Mets were happy with a slider he worked on in the AFL -- I think we need a long-term run of success with it before we know anything
TH: I expect to see both make at least 10-15 starts for the big Mets in 2007. Do you?
KG: I think that might be a little high. You're putting both in the rotation for 1/2 a year
TH: Exactly.
KG: that doesn't seem a bit strong to you? Especially with Zito looking like he'll come aboard?
TH: Ok, maybe a
little high. Still, guys get hurt.
Glavine and Hernandez are on the wrong side of 40. I'd love to believe in Perez and
TH: Given Pelfrey’s arm slot, does a curve or slider make more sense? And you describe his changeup as "usable." What's the biggest issue in improving it?
KG: The Mets think the slider has more possibilities, so that's what matters really. The change up lack deception, and he needs to improve his arm action on it, but he gets some decent movement on it as well -- not surprising considering his fastball.
TH: Now to the guy who confuses me: Carlos Gomez. What's your best comp on him?
KG: It's very
hard to do that in the same sense that
TH: One question from a reader on Gomez: What’s an example of someone like Carlos Gomez—a toolsy player who people “projected” would hit for more power than he showed in the minors and then actually did?
KG: There's tons of them.
TH: Yeah, I was throwing out names, how about at his size?
KG: Carlos Beltran hit seven home runs in his first season and a half over 437 at-bats. Mike Cameron hit ZERO home runs in 411 at-bats when he was 20.
TH: And both turned into good/great CF with pop.
KG: Sure. Vernon Wells hit 11 home runs in 134 games at 19.
TH: What do you see for him in AAA this year?
KG: While he has projectable power for sure, it's not going to suddenly happen, it's going to be a gradual thing, it's not like he's suddenly going to crank out 25 or something.
TH: What do you make of his reverse platoon splits where he struggles against lefties?
KG: I don't read too much into it . . . yet. His splits were very even in 2005, so I'm not sure we have a trend yet
TH: Is that a good example of trying to read too much into minor league stats?
KG: It's certainly an example -- the pure numbers mean something, and the scouting reports do as well, but it's hard to define any issues from pure numbers unless you can establish something that goes beyond a sample size issue
TH: Who else just missed the top 10?
KG: It was hard enough to find a 9 and 10! The system drops off pretty fast. Manny Garcia almost made it. Pena almost made it
TH: Oh come on. Guerra's a solid prospect to survive in a full season league at his age.
KG: True. #10 was hard. I had 9 locked in, but #10 was difficult to choose. Guerra is a solid prospect -- I got more flak for that ranking than anything else
TH: So explain the flak you're getting for Guerra...
KG: I think a lot of people see a young guy with those numbers and think he's an elite prospect. I understand that, but at the same time, his stuff just isn't that good yet, and the way he retired batters in the sally league isn't going to work on the upper levels -- he really needs to fill his projection, and it's pretty far off.
TH: Can you hazard any guess about the number or percentage of guys with his physical attributes at his age, turn their projectibility into real MLB quality stuff?
KG: It's almost
impossible to say -- we don't have enough 17 year olds pitching in full season
ball to define a pattern.
TH: Tell me about Manny Garcia.
KG: Emmanuel
Garcia, the infielder. Young player
signed out of
TH: Right. Future second baseman?
KG: Too early to say, but that's the hope.
KG: Dude, I gotta go pick up some Thai food
TH: Enjoy the Pad
